Developing an integrated predictive capability for extreme rainfall and inundation | Natural Hazards Research Australia

Developing an integrated predictive capability for extreme rainfall and inundation

Photo: Capt. W. M., Tatters, Flickr
Project type

Core research

Project status

In progress

This project aims to develop a prototype predictive capability, designed in collaboration with stakeholders and supported by social scientists, to improve forecasts of extreme rainfall and inundation and the communication of risk to emergency management.

The capability will be a multi-disciplinary collaboration between meteorological, hydrological and radar research teams, working across forecasting timescales with three main components:

  • improved utilisation of ensemble guidance
  • development and testing of radar rainfall nowcasting tools
  • flood inundation mapping.
Project details

The project will build on case studies undertaken in the related Improving predictions and warnings for flash flooding project examining flash flood events. The key aims are to:

  • improve predictions of the timing, location and intensity of extreme rainfall, particularly rainfall that occurs over short-timescales of several hours or less
  • better identify locations at risk of quick-onset flooding (including flash flooding) and inundation
  • quantify uncertainty in extreme rain and inundation predictions on these timescales
  • effectively communicate risk to emergency management practitioners and the public.

Related projects

Project
Flash flooding case studies to improve predictions and the communication of uncertainty