The research demonstrating how systems, people and public messaging can be better prepared and coordinated to reduce the impact of flash floods and enhance community resilience was showcased in the February Hazardous Webinar.
Providing background to the project, Queensland and Northern Territory Node Research Manager Nicola Moore focused on the critical importance and challenges of public communication during emergencies.
Improving the effective communication of uncertainty during flash flooding was identified by Natural Hazards Research Australia (the Centre) stakeholders as a key priority needing further research to enhance practice. This early work on stakeholder priorities developed three linked projects with the Bureau of Meteorology (the Bureau):
- Flash flooding case studies to improve predictions and the communication of uncertainty
- Long-range flood outlook for strategic preparedness
- Developing an integrated predictive capability for extreme rainfall and inundation
The responsibility for flash flood warnings rests with states and territories, often in partnership with local government. The Bureau provides forecasts and warnings for severe weather and potential heavy rainfall that may lead to flash flooding, including severe weather and tropical cyclone warnings.
This system underscores the shared responsibility of federal, state, territory and local governments in preparing for, responding to, and recovering from emergencies. It highlights the need for multi-disciplinary collaboration to enhance weather forecasting and improve communication to emergency service agencies and communities.
Research leader Dr Carla Mooney (the Bureau and the Centre) provided a project overview and defined flash flooding. She spoke on the value chain approach, highlighting key actors and responsibilities across the warning service value chain.
The value chain approach was used to investigate the flow of information from meteorologists and modelers through emergency service agencies to communities, identifying where and how probabilistic forecast and warning information could improve understanding of and responses to forecasts of flash flooding.
Karen Hudson and Dr David Wilke (the Bureau and the Centre) detailed the three case study locations across Australia, which identified a clear misunderstanding between flash flooding terminology and probability among the public, often stemming from a lack of clarity in communicating surrounding uncertainty. The case studies highlighted what did and didn’t work when communicating warnings, including how flash flood warnings are often reactive and don’t provide adequate lead time. The team highlighted warnings that performed well and were delivered through multiple channels.
Vicki Heinrich (the Bureau and the Centre) shared insights from the Severe weather and heavy rain survey, whose impressive 1235 responses showed participants had varying levels of understanding about flash flooding, with many misconceptions about its causes and risk factors. The survey results also showed that people interpret the words used in warning messages differently, underscoring the urgent need for more effective strategies to convey consistent and coordinated language around flash flooding risks and uncertainty.
Steve Muncaster (Victoria State Emergency Service) provided an end-user perspective on what this research might look like in practice. Steve has been involved in the project providing insights and guidance to the research team.
Steve said the emergency services are a key part of the value chain.
“When we get to warnings and responses, we need to be able to interpret what the uncertainty is saying and make some binary decisions,” Steve said.
“Where some of the best gains can be made is in the communication and understanding, both from emergency management services and the broader community and stakeholder. Better decisions and better community outcomes,” Steve said.
A lively Q&A session with the panel emphasised the collective responsibility for public education on flash floods must involve various agencies and local governments.
Community preparedness for and resilience to flash floods can be improved by addressing gaps in public understanding and fostering collaboration among agencies. A commitment to ongoing education and exploration into innovative forecasting technologies will also play a vital role in filling these knowledge gaps.