Long-range flood outlook for strategic preparedness

This project aims to develop a range of novel probabilistic products, such as:

• a national flood outlook at the weekly, multi-week to seasonal-scale, showing probabilistic inundation extent and depth, including uncertainty
• a national flood outlook at the weekly, multi-week to seasonal-scale, showing high, above average and below average chance of flooding in regions, including uncertainty
• a flood outlook at the individual gauge-level, namely probability of threshold exceedance in terms of percentiles, including uncertainty.

Successful flood outlook products will assist emergency services agencies in making strategic decisions, such as resource planning, as well as aiding response and recovery activities during a flood event. They may also be used by a range of other agencies and organisations (for example, those in the transport industry) to plan operations which are vulnerable to the effects of flooding.