Severe Weather Impact Prediction Sector Partner Engagement Final Report

Impact forecasting is a relatively new field of modelling and is still very much in its infancy in Australia and internationally. In Australia, the Bureau of Meteorology (the Bureau) supports a mature weather forecasting capability, while Geoscience Australia (GA) maintains mature exposure information datasets, and a growing suite of vulnerability models for residential housing assets, in particular. While still an emerging field of study, further research, and investment in developing impact-based modelling capability could have the potential to provide significant benefits for emergency management sector partners in preparing for and responding to disasters.

Collaborative Consulting Co, alongside the Bureau and GA, engaged with emergency management organisations and industry stakeholders (referred to collectively as ‘sector partners’ in this report) to understand the sector’s needs for advancing severe weather impact forecasting capabilities. This includes understanding how existing and potential capabilities within the Bureau, GA and other industry providers can be adapted and enhanced to meet those needs. 

This project set out to explore the potential utility of exposure and impact forecasting for severe weather, specifically severe thunderstorms and large-scale winds. The project sought to understand the exposure and impact information that emergency management sector partners and industry stakeholders require to better support their decision making in preparing for and responding to severe weather to mitigate the impact for communities.

In this report ‘exposure forecasting’ refers to the prediction of those assets in the path of a weather event. ‘Impact forecasting’ refers to the predicted amount of damage that will be sustained by physical assets in the path of an event.

Throughout this project, many sector partners indicated that as exposure and impact forecasting is still a new concept, they are yet to fully turn their minds to impact forecasting information to support decision making during severe thunderstorms and large-scale wind events. However, the sector indicated significant interest and appetite to better understand exposure and impact-based forecasting generally and how it can be used to better support decision making across all hazards. Generating and presenting hazard, exposure and impact ensembles will require sector partner education and appropriate reinforcement of the distinction between the concepts to support the appropriate decision-making response.

While still a new concept, this project acknowledges that predicting impact is not new for sector partners. On a qualitative level, for example, the Bureau has a long history of providing severe weather warnings that include statements concerning the potential for damage associated with wind gusts.[1] Response agencies currently do this by bringing together their experience and local knowledge, while communicating comprehensively with colleagues on the ground, other sector partners and referencing various information sources before and during an event. For example, when a severe weather event is forecast for an area, response agencies can anticipate potential impacts on homes, roads and buildings and continually validate anticipated impacts information through sources available to them.

Impact forecasting, both in Australia and internationally, is currently drawing more from lived experience than analysis of automated data-feeds, although there is growing maturity in the tropical cyclone domain. The Bureau and GA have considerable expertise and capability that they are already bringing to this area, as exemplified by the existing National Hazard and Impact Risk Service (NHIRS). These capabilities, applied in an appropriately targeted fashion, will support the sector in moving exposure and impact forecasting from a qualitative level to an increasingly quantitative level. The future of impact forecasting in Australia involves further developing and expanding this capability and collaborating strongly with the emergency management sector to bring together experience, local knowledge, and advanced technical expertise in accessible, easy to digest formats that are time effective and appropriately support decision making.

The insights from sector partners collected and presented in this Report will help steer further research projects that will be of most benefit for emergency response agencies, acknowledging there is strong interest in exposure and impact forecasting from a wide range of sector partners and industry stakeholders. Bringing sector partners and industry stakeholders together on future projects would ensure we maintain momentum beyond this project in building impact forecasting capability across the sector.

[1] http://www.bom.gov.au/weather-services/severe-weather-knowledge-centre/…