Predictions in public: understanding the design, communication and dissemination of predictive maps to the public

Research in Australia has been conducted on the public’s response to risk and warning communication (Dootson et al. 2019, 2021). However, less research effort has focused exclusively on maps and even less has focused on fire spread prediction maps and the Australian context. The purpose of the research reported here is to assess the extent to which community members use, comprehend, perceive and act upon maps, including fire spread prediction maps, in bushfire events. Building on the work of a nationwide survey of maps currently used in Australia (Work Package 5) and research that designed evidence-informed map concepts for fire spread prediction maps (Work Package 7), a second nationwide survey (N = 3190) was conducted. A total of four incident warning maps and 40 fire spread prediction maps (total = 44 maps) were tested using a co-designed bushfire event scenario, set in Western Australia. The sample comprised 53% female respondents, with approximately 49% aged 18 to 44 years old. In the overall sample, around 13% of the respondents indicated that someone in their household was a member of a state emergency service agency. Almost 60% indicated that they had previously experienced a bushfire, with over 38% indicating experience within the past five years. Thirty-six percent (36%) indicated they believe that are at risk of a bushfire where they currently live. A summary of the results is provided below. The intended audience for this report is the project team, the Steering Committee and agency people involved in map production and disseminating public information and warnings.