Quantifying and predicting bushfire risk following large-scale drought-induced vegetation die-off | Natural Hazards Research Australia

Quantifying and predicting bushfire risk following large-scale drought-induced vegetation die-off

Photo: Natural Hazards Research Australia
Project type

Core research

Project status

Expressions of Interest

This project aims to understand the impacts of heatwave and drought on bushfire disaster risk by:

  1. quantifying fuel characteristics for the range of vegetation types affected by vegetation die-off across southwestern Australia
  2. calculating potential fire behaviour
  3. identifying the interactions between climate change and bushfire risk by utilising remote sensing and heatwave/drought die-off research sites to project future die-off and bushfire risk.

This project is currently open for Expressions of Interest.

Project teams responding to this call for Expressions of Interest (see PDF in top-right corner) are required to submit their response using the Centre’s current EOI submission form.

EOI proposals are due by 2 April 2025 to research@naturalhazards.com.au.

An online webinar provided a more detailed briefing of the project and the opportunity for interested parties to pose specific questions. Watch the recording below.

Project details

Large areas of temperate Australia, including Southwestern Australia, parts of South Australia and Tasmania, experienced significant, widespread and severe heatwave and drought-induced vegetation die-off in 2024. However, how the bushfire risk has been altered as a result is unknown – this is a clear and critical gap in knowledge.

This project aims to understand the impacts of heatwave and drought on bushfire disaster risk by:

  1. quantifying fuel characteristics for the range of vegetation types affected by vegetation die-off across southwestern Australia
  2. calculating potential fire behaviour
  3. identifying the interactions between climate change and bushfire risk by utilising remote sensing and heatwave/drought die-off research sites to project future die-off and bushfire risk.

Frequently asked questions

Q) Are the word limits in the submission form a guideline?

A) Each question in the submission form has a required word limit. Submissions with statements exceeding the word limit will be deemed non-compliant.

Q) What do you mean by “Total cumulative FTE contribution over the life of the project"?
A) This means the total FTE per person over the life of the project. Maximum total FTE for each person is 1.0. Cumulative is to add up all the personnel.

For example:

  • If someone is contributing 1 FTE per year for three years, then their FTE is 1.000 FTE
  • If someone is contributing 0.1 FTE per year for three years, then their FTE is 0.100 FTE
  • If someone is contributing 0.05 FTE for two years of a three year project, then their FTE 0.033 FTE
  • If someone is contributing 0.5 for two years and 0.1 for 1 years of a three year project, then their FTE is 0.367 FTE

Q) Can the Centre connect interested parties with other agencies or organisations involved in developing this project, to discuss it further and assist in developing an EOI submission?

A) While an EOI is open for submissions, the Centre procurement processes don't allow Centre staff to connect interested parties, as this can cause conflicts of interest. However, interested parties are able to contact whomever they wish, excluding those organisations listed on the EOI, to discuss the project and explore opportunities for collaboration or potential consortium submissions. If an online project briefing has been organised for an EOI, we encourage interested parties to attend the briefing to ask questions and meet other interested parties.

Q) Can interested parties contact the Centre with questions about the project design before submitting?

A)  While an EOI is open for submissions, Centre procurement processes don't allow Centre staff to share knowledge of the project design directly with interested parties. However, if you have questions, you can email research@naturalhazards.com.au and you will receive a timely response if appropriate, according to our procurement processes.

Q) Is there a preference for a project team to be from a single research organisation, or from across multiple organisations?

A) The Centre has no preference for either a single organisation or a multi-organisation project team. EOIs will be accepted from either and will be evaluated against the evaluation criteria in the same way.

Q) Can the proposed project team include researchers from government agencies or research consultancies, as well as university-based researchers?

A) EOIs will be accepted from multi-organisation project teams, and project teams can include researchers at government agencies and research consultancies. The proposed project team's capacity to undertake the project will be evaluated in the same way whether researchers are university-, consultancy- or agency-based.

Q) Would academic salaries (excluding administrative overheads) be eligible to budget?

A) Yes, academic salaries can be included within the project budget, but only when they are direct project costs and their salary is not already covered elsewhere. E.g. the salary costs of a contract researcher who is actively working on the project can be included up to the FTE component they are contributing. However, the salary costs of a tenured academic who is already paid through the university/research organisation would be included as an in-kind contribution up to the amount of their FTE contribution to the project.

Q) What do you mean by "peer review"?

A) This is a quality control process. Where requested, the final report must be reviewed by someone who is an expert in the field and independent of the project.

Q) At what rate can salary on-costs be charged?

A) Administrative overheads are limited to direct salary-related on-costs. Indirect cost recoveries are not to be included. Other administrative overheads and indirect costs can be included as in-kind contributions. Where the salary on-cost rate exceeds 28% this will need to be justified.

Q) Can equipment costs be included in the budget?

A) Ordinarily, project funds are not to be used to purchase equipment. Where funds for equipment are requested, they will need to be justified.

Q) Can international research teams apply? Alternatively, can international research teams be part of a consortium bid?

A) International research teams can be part of research projects when they are part of a consortium submission that is led by an Australian research organisation. The international team would need to be subcontracted by the lead Australian based research organisation. Please note that all budget submissions must be in Australian dollars and the lead organisation must bear the cost of funds transfer and responsibility for due diligence as required under Australian Foreign Interference regulations.

Q) Is there an option of registering my interest as an independent researcher that could assist a larger team or are you only able to consider proposals that address the entire project?

A) Yes, you can submit an EOI as an independent researcher addressing part of the project requirements. In the EOI submission form, please outline which aspects of the project you can address. Once the EOI closes, we can consider linking researchers together, although whether or not we can do that will depend on a range of factors, so we can’t guarantee that outcome. Of course, the other option is to reach out to potential collaborators now about putting in a joint EOI submission that addresses the entire project.

Q) What does “fuel characteristics” refer to in the research questions? 

A) Fuel characteristics refers to the characteristics such as fuel moisture, structure etc. of the areas that have experienced die off and how these compare to areas that have not experienced die off.  

Q) Is there a possibility of working with supporting organisations to collect some of the data?  

A) The supporting organisations (end-users) will be open to discussing how they can support providing and collecting data with the chosen research provider. 

Q) How do the supporting organisations envision the use of remote sensing in this project? 

A) Rather than a remote sensing tool, it is envisioned that the research team might develop a model that is driven by remote sensing. 

Q) Has any fuels data already been collected from the areas that have been affected that will be available to the research team? 

A) Previously yes, some data has been collected but not for this specific project. Please see the published papers here and here for further information.

Q) What does the process look like for the formation of a consortium? 

A) Consortiums can be formed as part of a submission with one organization as the lead. Suggestions for consortiums may also be an outcome of the assessment process where it is likely to give the best outcome from the project. 

Q) Where does the bulk of the funding for communications lie and to what degree should communications be budgeted for?  

A) The Centre has a dedicated communications team who support on design, promotion, strategic communications, social media and more. The project team should consider some budgeting for any academic papers to be produced through the project.