The latest research exploring the way community members understand, perceive and use predictive bushfire maps was showcased in September's Hazardous Webinar.
Held on 17 September, attendees heard from Dr Erica Kuligowski (RMIT University and Natural Hazards Research Australia) and Dr Chloe Begg (Country Fire Authority) about the findings from in-depth interviews of community members with previous experience of bushfire in the Australian Capital Territory, New South Wales, Tasmania and Victoria, including how they used and understood bushfire predictive and incident maps.
Erica and Chloe detailed findings and their use from their study which forms part of Phase 1 of the Predictions in public: Understanding the design, communication and dissemination of predictive maps project and answered plenty of audience questions.
Replay the webinar below or visit the event page to see the slides.
The Predictions in Public project uses empirical evidence and collaborative processes to contribute to a national approach to the future use of public-facing predictive fire spread products during an emergency. Phase 1 of the project set out to understanding current agency practice and community comprehension and use of existing public-facing map-based products (i.e., incident warning maps and fire spread prediction maps).
Participants were from Cardinia, Victoria (2019 Bunyip Complex fires); southern Australian Capital Territory (ACT) and the Snowy Monaro, New South Wales (NSW) (2019-2020 Black Summer fires); and the Huon Valley, Tasmania (2019 Riveaux Road fire). They indicated that they checked maps more often at certain times during the bushfire, especially for early information (when the fire had not yet spread to participants’ immediate areas) or when the fire was moving quickly. Many participants used maps frequently, between 20 to 50 times each day.
A combination of information sources was used by participants to get a broader picture of their bushfire situation, with maps only one tool in their information toolbox. Community meetings were particularly useful in increasing understanding of fire spread prediction maps, as fire agency experts were on hand to explain the maps in more detail and answer questions.
Participants used maps for different purposes:
- to self-localise, or identify where they were in relation to the bushfire
- gather information about the bushfire and what to do next
- Monitor the extent or rate of spread using the burnt areas shown on the map
- cross-reference map information with other sources
- confirm or explain the physical cues that they were seeing around them (for example, smoke or emergency response crews and vehicles responding to the fire)
- make judgements about how the fire might spread and the level of risk
- inform or warn others who may be at risk
- monitor the impact of the fire on their or others’ properties, especially after evacuation.
Several main challenges in participants’ use of maps were identified, including difficulty ascertaining whether information was up to date; missing, inconsistent or inaccurate information; and inaccessibility of information due to lack of internet or coverage, device used, or comprehension issues. Participants indicated that this often reduced their confidence in the mapped information.
When shown an incident or fire spread prediction map, participants couldn’t consistently identify the location at greatest risk of harm from bushfire. The meaning of the warning polygons (Figures 1 and 3), triangle symbols and the meaning of the triangles’ locations (Figure 3) and the risks associated with certain areas on the maps, such as the grey or burnt areas, and the areas of potential fire spread (Figure 2), were also confusing for participants.
Regardless of map type, all participants requested more information to help them understand and act:
- wayfinding and navigation information to help self-locate, including city and town names, landmarks, topographical information, parks and road names; as well as traffic information, road closures, refuges and potential routes for evacuation
- environmental conditions, including fire size, intensity, activity (including burnt areas), location, spread and direction
- weather information and forecasts
- emergency response information (including the number of responding vehicles, their locations within the affected areas and the areas of intervention, e.g., backburning and containment lines).
Predictions in Public is a collaboration between Natural Hazards Research Australia, the Country Fire Authority (CFA), Victorian Department of Education, RMIT University, Queensland University of Technology, Deakin University and Swinburne University of Technology. Learn more about the Phase 1 of the project, including the full summary report, sector role and value of predictive services report, Hazard Note 5 and associated publications.