How do external and internal uncertainties affect disaster evacuation transport network design?

As natural hazards become more frequent and unpredictable, evacuation transport networks need to be designed with a full understanding of the uncertainties involved. These uncertainties come from two sides: planners and agencies must manage costs, ethics, network robustness and relief times, while evacuees themselves face unknowns around travel time, cost, satisfaction, risk tolerance and route choices. This research explores how these external and internal uncertainties shape evacuation modelling, network optimisation and real‑world decision‑making.

Through surveys and modelling work in regions across New South Wales, the research examines how people make route choices in both everyday and emergency situations, and how their behaviour affects the performance of evacuation networks. It also develops new models that account for uncertain demand, network reliability and competing ethical priorities, such as fairness, need and overall welfare. Together, these studies offer a comprehensive framework for designing evacuation systems that are more adaptable, efficient and ethically guided during disasters.