Predicting prescribed burn and low intensity forest fire behaviour

This project concept has been developed by the NSW Rural Fire Service, Country Fire Authority and AFAC Predictive Services Group. 

The research will observe forest fire behaviour to quantify the relationships: between air temperature; relative humidity; average 10m wind speed; wind direction and relevant fuel parameters to support decision-making around the appropriateness of suppression tactics.  

The project will enhance the ability of current fire behaviour models to enable better predictions of the full range of bushfire behaviour, from being virtually stationary to spreading as an extreme crown fire. 

Accurately predicting the full range of bushfire behaviour will: 

• improve operational response and firefighter safety as informed decisions can be made about the feasibility of direct attack and prescribed burning operations 

• improve understanding of risk and situational awareness as fire spread predictions, Fire Danger Ratings and simulations made by fire behaviour models can accurately predict fires in this range and the potential for over-warnings or over-predictions is reduced 

• mitigate risk and improve community safety as the conditions where prescribed burns can be safely conducted are more accurately and readily identified 

• equip future workforces with fit-for-purpose tools to help them make operational and prescribed burning decisions. 

These outcomes are all nationally relevant for all areas of incident management and prescribed burning across the sector.