The possible landfall of Tropical Cyclone Alfred later this week highlights that residents of south east Queensland and northern New South Wales must take cyclone risks seriously. Andrew Gissing, CEO of Natural Hazards Research Australia, highlights research-backed lessons that residents can use to help understand their risk and plan and prepare their home and family.
“Early preparation can reduce damage and increase safety, however research from Natural Hazards Research Australia shows that often people do not understand what they need to do to be fully prepared. For example, research after the 2022 floods in Queensland and New South Wales found that 50% of residents acknowledged that they could have been more prepared.
“Tropical cyclones have impacted south east Queensland and northern New South Wales before. In 1954 and 1974 severe cyclones made landfall at Coolangatta, resulting in severe flooding and loss of life across the region. South east Queensland has been developed significantly since this time, with many more people, and significant infrastructure, now in the firing line. Other significant cyclones have passed close to south east Queensland but have remained offshore (e.g. TC Dinah, 1967, TC Nancy 1990 and TC Oma, 2019).
“Primary hazards associated with cyclones are flooding, strong winds and coastal erosion. These hazards occurring in densely populated areas like Brisbane, the Sunshine Coast, the Gold Coast and northern New South Wales is of significant concern. The damage that Alfred could lead to includes damages to homes, businesses and infrastructure; disruption to essential services and supply chains; agricultural losses; and injury and fatalities. Significant coastal damage can occur without a cyclone making landfall because of abnormally high tides and damaging surf.
“If your home is older than 1980, it may not be built to the building codes and is at significant risk to strong winds. Caravans and cabins are particularly at risk, while fallen trees may damage powerlines resulting in blackouts and wider disruptions.”
Flooding and cyclones
“Flooding is the deadliest facet of a cyclone. Most lives are lost in floods because people chose to enter floodwater. Previous research has found that 84% of motorists ignore road closure signs. Those that are most likely to enter floodwater are younger men, those that work outdoors and drivers of 4WDs. Only a small error in judgement can be fatal.
“You never know what is under the surface – floodwater can easily wash away the surface of the road and in seconds your life is in danger as you’re off the road, into the current and your vehicle is sinking.
“Research after the 2022 flooding in Queensland and New South Wales tells us that there are big picture issues that affect how people respond and recover – community connection and communication, local capacity for action, flexibility in disaster adaptation and personal control over decision making are all key aspects that influence the how people manage adversity. This research can inform any recovery plans that might be needed following Tropical Cyclone Alfred.”
What can you do? Make a disaster plan
“Research shows the most important thing you can do is make a plan. A great example your family can use is the Red Cross emergency plan. Visit redcross.org.au/prepare to get started. “Your local council is also a great resource and have information online to help identify if a home or business is at-risk of flooding.”
The future
“Climate change is influencing our weather. We should expected fewer tropical cyclones, but a greater proportion of these are expected to be severe. Heavier rainfall intensities, combined with higher sea levels will increase the risk of flooding associated with tropical cyclones.
“We must plan for this, and use scientific knowledge, to ensure Australians remain safe and we protect our environment and the places we love.”