Despite being downgraded to an ex-Tropical Cyclone Alfred continues to pose a significant threat to flood-prone communities in south-east Queensland and north-east New South Wales.
Early warnings have enabled residents to prepare, yet many are still recovering from severe flooding experienced in 2022, explains Andrew Gissing, CEO of Natural Hazards Research Australia.
Major riverine and flash flooding are expected across the regions, with research highlighting that flooding often emerges as the deadliest element of severe weather.
"The majority of deaths occur due to individuals making the dangerous decision to enter floodwaters," Andrew said.
Motorists and floodwater risks
Authorities are stressing the importance of avoiding floodwaters, as a concerning 84 per cent of motorists ignore road closure signs. Younger men, outdoor workers, and 4WD drivers are particularly prone to taking risks, leading to potentially fatal consequences.
"Floodwaters can be deeper or faster-flowing than anticipated, roads may be washed away beneath, and conditions can change rapidly," Andrew said.
Evacuation warnings and consequences
Unconfirmed reports indicate some residents are choosing to remain in their homes despite evacuation warnings. Previous research has found that such decisions often lead to issues like loss of services and heightened anxiety.
Late evacuations have resulted in life-threatening situations, with some individuals needing rescue. Authorities urge everyone to adhere to emergency services' instructions.
Future mitigation measures
Attention will soon quickly turn to measures that can mitigate future flood disasters and lower insurance premiums. Tailoring strategies to local community risks will be crucial. Solutions could include:
- flood mitigation infrastructure
- community relocation
- raising homes
- retrofitting with flood-resilient materials
- risk-based land-use planning
- nature-based solutions.
Stay vigilant
Communities are reminded to stay vigilant, prioritise safety, and follow official guidance as the region braces for the impacts of Alfred.
Cyclone-related research
Natural Hazards Research Australia hosts a comprehensive body of evidence relevant to tropical cyclones and floods. This evidence covers the physical impacts of cyclones, analysis of fatalities after natural hazards, how people are affected by extreme disasters and the benefits of mitigation. Visit the collated research on tropical cyclones and floods.