With at least 28 people killed and more than 17,000 structures destroyed to date, what can Australia learn from the devastating Greater Los Angeles wildfires?
Since the fires began on 7 January 2025, significant local and international media focus has centred on building, infrastructure and community losses, emergency messaging and lessons that could support disaster risk reduction locally, especially in Australia.
Along with members of the Centre’s research knowledge network, recently I’ve fielded many questions about the why, how and what-if of the devastating fires.
Could a Los Angeles-style fire happen in Australia?
Well, yes.
As Professor David Bowman states in his piece in The Conversation, suburbs in Australia’s major cities have seen severe destruction before, for example Hobart in 1967 and Canberra in 2003. Our cities are ringed by bushland, with many thousands of properties exposed.
2024 was the warmest year globally on record. Climate change fuels bushfire the risk, with more frequent fire weather only increasing the chances of catastrophe.
Los Angeles is built in one of the most fire prone parts of the world, where destructive fires destroying thousands of buildings have become routine. Much of what occurred was foreseeable. In such extreme conditions little could be done by first responders to save property once the fires ran, however, urban planning decisions to build in areas of known fire risk created the fundamental conditions for the disaster well before the fire ignited. A fact officials were often reminded by previous wildfires. Research shows Californian properties exposed to wildfire risk increased by 40% between 1990 and 2020.
Such a situation may be described as a Gray Rhino, a term coined by Michele Wucker in her book, The Gray Rhino, meaning a potentially catastrophic risk which is obvious, but overlooked by decision makers. Gray Rhinos differ from Black Swans which are characterised as rare, unpredictable events, with high consequences. Many previous disasters can be attributed to the manifestation of the Gray Rhino phenomena.
So, can we spot any Gray Rhinos grazing in plain sight in Australia?
We knew that global pandemics could occur and would risk the lives of millions but were unprepared. We know severe cyclones have impacted southeast Queensland in the past, but we don’t build homes is this location to cyclone standards. We continue to build on high-risk flood plains in many parts of the country.
The Los Angeles fires and examples here in Australia highlight that we must not only take the opportunity to think of the unimaginable as encouraged by former Emergency Management Australia Director General Mark Crosweller, but also ensure we consider the obvious scenarios that exist or are being created that maybe unappreciated or overlooked.
Other reflections include:
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What were the key drivers of the destruction throughout the urban area and how could fire authorities best manage a similar fire in Australia? Known as urban conflagration, extensive urban structure to structure fire spread has drawn comparisons with significant fires in major cities throughout the centuries. Centre project Bushfire risk at the rural-urban interface led by Prof David Bowman at the University of Tasmania addresses some of these unknowns in an Australian context.
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Why is the loss of life so (relatively) low given the impact of the fire on structures? Despite the widespread destruction and wildfire spread, the number of people who have died is thankfully surprisingly low. The answers to how the agencies, governments and communities achieved this will undoubtedly be explored and be of interest to emergency planners around the world. Centre project Awareness, education and communication in compound natural hazards led by Dr Gabbi Mocatta at the University of Tasmania looked at how people, communities and businesses need to be prepared and respond effectively during disasters. Replay the Hazardous Webinar here.
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How will communities recover given the uncertainty of insurance coverage? Comparisons are already being made to issues of insurance affordability in Australia, supporting calls for risk mitigation to maintain affordability. This is a conversation that will continue, especially with the increasing frequency and severity of natural hazards. The Centre is leading discussions with the insurance sector and will continue to drive workable, sustainable Australian solutions.
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What are the long-term health impacts of the fires? The global evidence base of the negative health impacts of bushfire smoke continues to grow, impacting communities in the short-, mid- and long-term. Recent Centre PhD scholarship graduates Dr Suki Jaiswal and Dr Kiam Padamsey looked into the effects of smoke on the human body, with subsequent research projects underway to further explore the health effects of fire on firefighters and communities.
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How can disinformation be managed during a disaster? This crisis illustrates the propensity for political, scientific and personal disinformation. How can emergency managers manage this type of circumstances and maintain public trust and confidence? In Australia, we shouldn’t consider ourselves immune. The 2024 Disaster Challenge focused on trust building with innovative ideas from the next generation of natural hazard and disaster management leaders.
From the Centre’s perspective, it’s humbling that many of our research projects are relevant to observations from the Los Angeles wildfires, meaning they have strong application potential. In the year ahead, we look forward to continuing our efforts to achieve our mission of working with partners and the community on research that is useful, actionable and supportive of better decision-making to save lives and protect communities.
We look forward to working with you this new year, to be bold, curious and ambitious to inspire change and even help spot the odd Gray Rhino.